关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   应对措施  

摘要： 农业是国民经济的基础，气候是影响农业生产的重要决定因素，气候变化对农业所带来的不利影响，特别是极端天气气候诱发的自然灾害将会造成农业生产的波动、危及粮食安全、社会的稳定和经济的可持续发展。本文阐述了我国气候变化的特征和趋势，介绍了农作物对温度、降水变化的敏感性，分析了气候变化对中国农业生产所造成的影响和危害。由此，为农民和农业科技人员应对气候变化，保障农业生产提供可靠依据。

关键词： Climate change   Agriculture   Provisioning ecosystem services   UK national ecosystem assessment   Structural land use model   Censored regression  

摘要： This paper provides an estimate of the contribution of the ecosystem to the provisioning services generated by agriculture. This is achieved by valuing the changes in productivity generated by a marginal alteration in ecosystem inputs. As an example, we consider the variation in rainfall and temperature projected by the recent UK Climate Impacts Programme. The analysis implements a spatially explicit, econometric model of agricultural land use based on the methodology recently developed by Fezzi and Bateman (Am J Agric Econ 93:1168-1188, 2011). Land use area and livestock stocking rates are then employed to calculate farm gross margin estimates of the value of changes in provisioning ecosystem services. Findings suggest that the variation in ecosystem inputs induced by climate change will have substantial influence on agricultural productivity. Interestingly, within the UK context climate change generates mainly positive effects, although losses are forecasted for those southern areas most vulnerable to heat-stress and drought.

关键词： Climate change adaptation   Foresight analysis   Groundwater   Participatory processes  

摘要： There is an increasing call for local measures to adapt to climate change, based on foresight analyses in collaboration with actors. However, such analyses involve many challenges, particularly because the actors concerned may not consider climate change to be an urgent concern. This paper examines the methodological choices made by three research teams in the design and implementation of participatory foresight analyses to explore agricultural and water management options for adaptation to climate change. Case studies were conducted in coastal areas of France, Morocco, and Portugal where the groundwater is intensively used for irrigation, the aquifers are at risk or are currently overexploited, and a serious agricultural crisis is underway. When designing the participatory processes, the researchers had to address four main issues: whether to avoid or prepare dialogue between actors whose relations may be limited or tense;how to select participants and get them involved;how to facilitate discussion of issues that the actors may not initially consider to be of great concern;and finally, how to design and use scenarios. In each case, most of the invited actors responded and met to discuss and evaluate a series of scenarios. Strategies were discussed at different levels, from farming practices to aquifer management. It was shown that such participatory analyses can be implemented in situations which may initially appear to be unfavourable. This was made possible by the flexibility in the methodological choices, in particular the possibility of framing the climate change issue in a broader agenda for discussion with the actors.

关键词： Climate change   GHG emissions   Ecosystem services   Land use change   Agriculture  

摘要： This article provides estimates of the physical and economic value of changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions projected to arise from climate change induced shifts in UK agricultural land use during the period 2004-2060. In physical terms, significant regional differences are predicted with the intensity of agricultural GHG emissions increasing in the upland north and western parts of the UK and decreasing in the lowland south and east of the country. Overall these imply relative modest increases in the physical quantity of emissions. However, rapid rises in the expected marginal value of such emissions translate these trends into major increases in their economic costs over the period considered.

关键词： 气候变化   农业收入   家庭规模   农业政策  

摘要： 布隆迪的农业人口占总人口数的90％，本文旨在研究布隆迪西部Busoni地区小规模农户如何认知气候变化以及农民务农收入的影响因素。研究结果表明，Busoni地区多数小规模农户均表示已经感知到了较大程度的气候变化，即温度上升和降水减少，特别是2000年该地区的气候让人印象深刻，并认为气候变化是由自然因素导致。近年来，该地区季节性降水以及年度降水均减少，而年平均温度却上升。同时，本文对如何采取措施来提高该地区农业应对气候变化能力进行了讨论。\n 在布隆迪，农业吸纳了大量劳动力，农业收入决定了农村居民的购买力。因此，十分有必要研究布隆迪农民务农收入的影响因素，并为相关政策的研究打下基础。本文运用来自218个农户的调查数据，通过分析发现家庭规模和种植规模对农户务农收入有显著正影响。最后，据此结果本文提出相关政策建议。

关键词： 魏晋南北朝   气候变化   农业生产   灾前预测   粮食价格  

摘要： 气候变化会对社会经济等各方面产生影响,对农业的影响是其中的重要方面。就魏晋南北朝气候变化对农业的影响研究而言,学界已展开众多的研究,但是针对气候变化对主要农作物和相应农业系统的影响以及人们的灾前灾后的应对措施研究仍然不够深入。因此本文就这一问题展开进一步论述。\n 继东汉以来魏晋南北朝气候逐渐由暖湿变得寒冷干旱,这一转变对魏晋南北朝的农业产生了深远的影响,主要表现在对这一时期主要农作物,包括麦、豆、粟、稻等的影响。气候变化对农作物的影响是多方面的,涉及到品种更替、作物南移、种植范围、粮食收成等。另外气候变化还引起了其它农业系统如人口南迁、粮食价格的变化。通过对这一时期气候变化及其对主要农作物、人口南迁和粮食价格的影响情况的分析,本文认为魏晋南北朝气候总体寒冷干旱,水旱霜冻雨雪等极端事件频发,具有频率高、持续时间长、破坏性大、波及范围广、危害久远等特点。其对这一时期农作物生产的环境、程序、配套设施、管理、生产工具等都提出了严格的要求。同时本文还认为,人类在气候变化面前并不是无所作为的,可以充分发挥人事作用。在生存压力下这一时期的人们自力更生、集思广益,在灾前预测、重农惠农、农业技术、生产工具、抗旱保墒、精耕细作等方面建立起一系列完整严密的体系。这反过来又极大地促进了这一时期农业生产的发展,其成就远胜于秦汉,并在历史上产生了深远的影响。

关键词： 岷江上游   干旱河谷气候   农业发展   影响  

摘要： 岷江上游地区季节变化比较明显,受局地焚风效应的影响,岷江上游地区干湿两季十分明显,还会经常出现干旱河谷的隐域性分异现象,当地农业也以立体分布格局为主[1]。由于干旱气候变化幅度较大,岷江上游流域生态环境具有明显的脆弱性,该特性会严重阻碍岷江上游流域农业的发展。为改变干旱河谷对岷江上游农业发展的影响现状,当地农业建设单位必须在妥善处理好资源开发的同时,协调好农业发展与生态环境之间的关系,并深入了解干旱河谷气候与干旱河谷农业发展之间的关系。笔者结合多年工作经验,对岷江上游干旱河谷气候变化对农业发展的影响及适应性对策做了总结介绍。

关键词： 石羊河流域   地下水水位   农业生产   气候变化  

摘要： 通过回归分析等方法研究了石羊河流域气候变化和农业生产发展对地下水水位的影响。研究结果认为从长期看流域内降水量、蒸发量对地下水的影响不大,武威地区降水量和蒸发量对地下水位的影响系数在0.004以内,民勤地区降水量和蒸发量的影响系数在0.001以内,影响较小;而径流量与粮食产量的变化是地下水水位下降的主要原因,武威和民勤地区径流量对地下水位的影响系数分别为1.381和6.008;并使用最小二乘回归模型确定了地下水水位用径流量和总产量表达的关系式,经验证,模型有较高的模拟精度,预测将来武威地下水水位平均每年将下降0.945 m,民勤地下水水位将下降0.919 m。

关键词： Agriculture   Bioenergy climate adaptation   Climate change   Climate mitigation   Modeling  

摘要： This issue of Agricultural Economics is a special issue containing articles on model performance in assessing the effects of climate change, bioenergy policy, and socioeconomics on agriculture. The contributions present results from a global economic model intercomparison activity undertaken as part of the AgMIP Project (***). The origins of the comparison activities can be traced to a project that was organized by the OECD in late 2010 to compare results from three models. The current phase of the research includes 10 models and was designed in part to support of the IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5). The special issue includes seven peer-reviewed articles that present thematic results from a range of modeling strategies, with partial and general equilibrium modeling as a high level distinction but a myriad of differences within these two model types. A central common element is harmonization on biophysical effects using crop models and socioeconomic effects using drivers from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways developed as part of the AR5 process. The special issue provides broad insights into how the modeling communities approached the interactions of climate, socioeconomics, bioenergy policy on agricultural outcomes, including land use, prices, consumption, and production.

关键词： Climate change impacts   Economic models of agriculture   Scenarios  

摘要： Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs involves direct use of weather inputs (temperature, solar radiation available to the plant, and precipitation). Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes such as prices, production, and trade arising from differences in model inputs and model specification. This article presents climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. By harmonizing key drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes were reduced. The particular choice of climate change drivers for this comparison activity results in large and negative productivity effects. All models respond with higher prices. Producer behavior differs by model with some emphasizing area response and others yield response. Demand response is least important. The differences reflect both differences in model specification and perspectives on the future. The results from this study highlight the need to more fully compare the deep model parameters, to generate a call for a combination of econometric and validation studies to narrow the degree of uncertainty and variability in these parameters and to move to Monte Carlo type simulations to better map the contours of economic uncertainty.