关键词:
发达国家货币政策
国际贸易
工具变量法
摘要:
截至目前,美元依然为国际间贸易的主要计价和结算货币,我国对外贸易不可避免的会受发达国家币政策的影响。对外贸易过去的很多年一直都是中国经济重要的增长点,文章以中国2013年提出的倡议成员国为样本空间,采用实证研究方法,基于2013~2023年151个成员国与中国的进出口贸易数据、丝路贸易指数数据和美联储货币政策代理变量数据分别进行实证检验。研究表明美联储紧缩性货币政策对贸易数据和贸易指数均有显著正向影响,其中贸易逆差作为中介变量起到了显著的作用。Up to now, the US dollar is still the main pricing and settlement currency for international trade. my country’s foreign trade will inevitably be affected by the currency policies of developed countries. Foreign trade has been an important growth point of China’s economy for many years. This article uses the member countries of the initiative proposed by China in 2013 as the sample space, adopts empirical research methods, and is based on the import and export trade between 151 member countries and China from 2013 to 2023. Data, Silk Road trade index data and Federal Reserve monetary policy proxy variable data are empirically tested respectively. Research shows that the Federal Reserve’s tightening monetary policy has a significant positive impact on both trade data and trade indexes, among which the trade deficit plays a significant role as an intermediary variable.